Market Turning Points Daily Commentary: May 13th, 2024
Two Key Price Peaks on the Horizon: Strategic Trade Planning for May and June
Today's market commentary highlights two significant price peaks that warrant our attention for strategic trade planning over the next month. According to our Visualizer charts, these peaks are expected on May 16th and June 13th, both occurring just one day after important economic events.
May 16th Peak: The Impact of the CPI Report
The first peak on May 16th follows the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Expectations are for another hot CPI reading, which could further ignite stagflation fears. Stagflation, characterized by stagnant economic growth coupled with high inflation, creates a challenging environment for the stock market. If the CPI and the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on May 31st confirm persistent inflation, it could dash hopes for any Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
No rate cuts or fewer rate cuts would likely trigger a sell-off in stocks, making it essential to plan trades around these events carefully.
June 13th Peak: Federal Reserve Rate Announcement
The second peak is projected for June 13th, just one day after the next Federal Reserve rate announcement. This timing suggests that market movements will be highly reactive to the Fed's stance on interest rates. If the CPI and PCE reports indeed show continued inflationary pressure, the Fed may have no choice but to maintain or even increase rates, further shaking the market.
This anticipated decline in June aligns with the timing of declines in our long-term and intermediate-term cycles as depicted in our Forecast charts. A combined downturn in these cycles could signal a bearish period reminiscent of last August to September's market behavior.
Understanding the Cycles
It's important to understand the cyclical nature of the market. The long-term cycle typically oscillates between 9 to 12 months. By June, we will be approximately 10 months into the current cycle, which began its last decline about 10 months ago. This timing suggests we may be nearing the end of this long-term uptrend.
Before we reach this first cyclical peak, it is crucial to recognize that intermediate bullish trends often see several late surges before a top is finally established. Our objective should be to hold long positions as long as the intermediate uptrend persists while using layered stops to protect against potential downturns.
Implementing Layered Stops for Risk Management
For those managing their trades, it is reasonable to place stops under a 2/3, 3/5, and possibly a deeper 4/7 crossover average. These stops help to protect against give-backs during the next cyclical decline, ensuring that we safeguard profits while still participating in the market's upward movements.
Expanding on Today's Insights: A Comprehensive Approach
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Conclusion
As we approach the anticipated price peaks on May 16th and June 13th, it's crucial to plan your trades strategically, leveraging the insights and tools provided by Market Turning Points. Stay informed, manage your risks with layered stops, and join a community of traders committed to achieving consistent success. Visit Market Turning Points to learn more and take the first step towards transforming your trading strategy.
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