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Short Term Market Outlook: June 2024 Analysis and Forecast

Updated: Jun 14


Market Commentary/Forecast - June 5, 2024

Our current cyclical analysis is confirming a developing - albeit mild - bullish short-term market outlook is underway:

Long-Term Cycles: Decisively resuming an upward trajectory, signaling growing market optimism.

Intermediate Cycles: Currently stabilizing and expected to turn upward and help lift markets toward the next projected peak on June 14th.

Short-Term Cycles: After bottoming out on May 30th, they've steadily risen, indicating positive near-term momentum.

Furthermore, crossover averages confirm a growing but minor bullish trend developing. Daily lows are holding above all four crossovers, indicating that buying pressure is building, while heat maps show how that buying is gradually turning more broad-based.

Although the current rally should extend its gains, our analysis suggests this upswing has a limited lifespan. Projections indicate a peak around June 14th, after which we anticipate a reversal, leading to a pullback that could persist through month-end.


Stock Market Predictions For Next 6 Months
QQQ Stock Visualizer Chart

Understanding Market Cycles and Trends

Long-Term Cycles: The upward trajectory of long-term cycles suggests that the market's overall health is improving. This trend aligns with broader economic indicators showing recovery and growth. Investors should remain optimistic but cautious, as long-term trends provide the foundation for sustained market performance.

Intermediate Cycles: Stabilizing intermediate cycles indicates the market is finding a balance after recent volatility. These cycles are critical for identifying mid-term investment opportunities. The expected upward turn in these cycles towards June 14th presents a favorable window for swing traders to capitalize on the anticipated market gains.

Short-Term Cycles: The rise in short-term cycles since May 30th reflects a recovery in investor sentiment and market momentum. This trend is crucial for day traders making quick trades based on daily market movements. The steady rise in these cycles indicates a robust near-term bullish outlook.

Implications of the FOMC Announcement

This short-term bullish window can provide a reasonable opportunity for long-position swing trades. However, risk management is critical—use tight stop-loss orders under a 2/3 crossover to protect your capital. It's important to note that this rally is unfolding against Fed policy uncertainty. The FOMC announcement on June 12th has the potential to reverse market sentiment quickly. Interest rates and forward guidance may not align with traders' hopes, especially considering a cyclical decline is projected after June 14.

Detailed Analysis of Market Cycles

Long-Term Cycles: The resumption of the upward trajectory in long-term cycles suggests that the market's overall health is improving. This trend aligns with the broader economic indicators showing recovery and growth. Investors should remain optimistic but cautious, as long-term trends provide the foundation for sustained market performance.

Intermediate Cycles: Stabilizing intermediate cycles indicates the market is finding a balance after recent volatility. These cycles are critical for identifying mid-term investment opportunities. The expected upward turn in these cycles towards June 14th presents a favorable window for swing traders to capitalize on the anticipated market gains.

Short-Term Cycles: The rise in short-term cycles since May 30th reflects a recovery in investor sentiment and market momentum. This trend is crucial for day traders making quick trades based on daily market movements. The steady rise in these cycles indicates a robust near-term bullish outlook.

Risk Management Strategies

Given the projected peak around June 14th, it's essential to implement effective risk management strategies:

  1. Tight Stop-Loss Orders: Setting tight stop-loss orders under a 2/3 crossover average can help protect your investments from sudden market reversals. This strategy allows you to lock in gains while minimizing potential losses.

  2. Diversification: Spread your investments across multiple sectors to reduce risk. Diversification helps mitigate the impact of sector-specific downturns and allows you to benefit from broader market gains.

  3. Monitor Economic Indicators: Keep a close eye on economic indicators and market news, especially around the FOMC announcement on June 12th. Understanding the broader economic context can help you make informed trading decisions.

Utilizing Market Turning Points Tools

At Market Turning Points, we provide advanced tools and insights to help traders navigate market complexities. Our platform includes:

  • Daily Forecast Charts: Stay updated with charts that clearly show market trends and potential turning points.

  • AI Projected Price Charts: Access automated price projections for over 60 index ETFs to make informed trading decisions.

  • Buy/Sell Signals: Utilize our automated signals to identify optimal entry and exit points for your trades.

  • Weekly Webinars: Join live webinars with Q&A sessions to learn from experts and get answers to your trading questions.

  • Free Indicators for Tradingview: Enhance your trading strategy with our custom indicators available on Tradingview.

  • Educational Resources: Access quick instructional videos and comprehensive educational materials to improve your trading skills.

Conclusion

As we navigate this short-term bullish window, it's crucial to stay informed and implement effective risk management strategies. The expected peak around June 14th provides an opportunity for gains, but caution is warranted due to potential market reversals and Fed policy uncertainties. By leveraging the tools and insights provided by Market Turning Points, you can trade with confidence and make informed decisions.

For more detailed market insights and to take advantage of our predictive tools, visit Market Turning Points and subscribe today. Stay ahead of market trends and enhance your trading strategy with our comprehensive resources.



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