Market Turning Points - 2026

Every uptrend begins as a rally, and most rallies never become one. The rally shows buyers arrived; the first pullback shows whether they stayed. When prices retreat and stop above the recent lows with crossover averages recovering beneath them, the move has absorbed selling. This article covers why the pullback is the real test, why an advance needs more than one group carrying it, and how to add exposure as the evidence arrives. In 2009 the confirming pullback came four mon

Capitulation describes how the selling is happening, not whether it is finished. Short-term cycles falling deeply do precede a bounce, but when the intermediate cycle is still declining that bounce gives the ground back. This article covers what capitulation actually measures, why deep short-term readings are not bottoms, and what has to confirm before a washout counts as a turn. In 2008 the pattern repeated three times across five months before the low that held.

Higher yields reduce what investors will pay for future earnings, so stock market valuation improves automatically as prices fall. That makes the measure strongest exactly when acting on it hurts most. This article covers why the multiple compresses, why stalled intermediate cycles and lower highs matter more than any valuation level, and what has to turn first. In 2022 the forward multiple fell from 21 to 15 on FactSet's measure while the index dropped 25.4 percent.

Backwardation appears when traders pay up for protection immediately, and it does not last. Contango is the calm state, and it can hold for months while intermediate cycles decline the entire time. This article covers what each curve state actually indicates, why reading volatility against the crossover averages beats modeling the term structure, and what has to appear alongside calm volatility before a rebound counts as a turn. February 5, 2018 is the record of what calm con

A trailing stop loss tied to a fixed percentage exits on a number the market has no reason to respect. Tied to the crossover averages and cycle position, it exits when the trend has actually failed. This article covers where the stop belongs when price has reclaimed the 2/3 but not the 3/5 and 4/7, why short-term cycles turning up inside a falling intermediate cycle produce rallies that look like repairs, and what specifically has to change before raising the stop is justifie

GDP revised down to 0.7% while core PCE remains at 3.1% year over year. Growth has slowed while inflation has stalled. Oil near $100 acts like a tax on the economy. This stagflation backdrop keeps long-term and intermediate cycles declining. Rallies behave as counter-trend rebounds until intermediate cycles bottom and prices confirm above crossover averages. Once those signals appear, probabilities shift back in favor of sustained long trades.

The stock market rebound from March 6 is consistent with short-term cycles turning higher from oversold. But intermediate cycles remain flat, and prices closed well off their highs. When markets close well off their highs, it often means sellers are still active into strength. Visualizer projections suggest a low may be in place with strength extending into late March. Trade cautiously with smaller positions until confirmation appears.

Headlines are blips. Cycles are the structure. When intermediate cycles are falling, exposure stays light and cash preserves flexibility. Markets reward discipline and punish impatience. The projected intermediate trough in early March gives us the timing window. Until then, we defend capital first. Once cycles turn up, follow-through strengthens and breakouts hold. Patience is not passive. It is the positioning that makes decisive action possible.

A one-day bounce does not a new trend make. Prices rallied because short-term timing required relief, not because intermediate cycles earned a reversal. Long-term cycles are weaker, no longer providing upward thrust. Intermediate cycles remain in decline. Until they turn decisively higher and price reclaims dominant structure, rallies should be treated as tactical, not directional. The dead cat bounce becomes real only when cycles earn it.

Markets bounced, tempting traders to jump in. This tactical trading post setup shows why patience wins when short-term cycles turn up but intermediate cycles keep rolling over. Without alignment, rallies stall at resistance. Risk stays elevated until the February 2-12 window completes and cycles realign for higher-probability opportunities.

Markets are opening August under pressure with shocking jobs weakness - only 73,000 jobs added versus expectations. But intermediate cycles had already signaled this correction timing. Previous job estimates were slashed by 258,000, revealing months of deterioration. Intermediate cycles are rolling over right on schedule, projecting a low around August 14th. Learn how correction frequency follows predictable patterns that transcend headlines.

Forecast charts reveal the true rhythm of the market—helping investors align with cycles, ignore the noise, and act with precision. In this article, we explore how to use cycle structure for smarter entries and exits in business cycle investing.

This article offers a clear, disciplined approach to swing trading stocks without guessing or relying on lagging indicators. It focuses on what actually matters: structure, cycles, and clarity. Learn to move away from emotional responses and towards a model that builds confidence through repeatable signals. Discover how to use tools like price channels, cycle counts, and crossover averages to interpret market rhythm and identify high-probability setups for consistent results

SPY and QQQ are setting up for an intermediate cycle low into early June. With long-term uptrends intact and inflation cooling, the structure may soon confirm a new rally phase. Until then, we stay patient, letting price action guide re-entry. This disciplined approach—rooted in cycles, price channels, and crossover signals—keeps us aligned with what truly matters: structure over noise.

Not every pullback is the end of a trend. Learn how bullish continuation patterns, when paired with intermediate cycle timing, reveal high-probability setups during rising markets. This post shows how to identify structure, avoid traps, and use timing tools that support disciplined long entries.

Learn how to build a swing trading app strategy that supports Steve’s cycle timing approach. With the intermediate trend still rising, your app should help confirm structure, manage risk, and support tactical exits as we approach the projected peak.

Despite stronger jobs data and tariff-driven volatility, the intermediate market cycle continues to rise. Learn how to manage trades with structure and timing while policy noise distorts the headlines, and why staying aligned with cycles offers a clearer edge in the weeks ahead.

Leading economic indicators are flashing warning signs even as earnings remain strong. From collapsing port traffic to weakening manufacturing surveys, the data suggests this rally is approaching a cycle top. Learn why forward-looking signals matter more than ever and how to stay tactical using structure and timing.

The market’s surface strength hides a critical weakness—poor breadth. Discover how market breadth indicators expose narrow leadership and why traders should be cautious despite rising index prices. Learn to time trades with cycle alignment and protect capital in uncertain conditions.