Market Turning Points - 2026

Higher yields reduce what investors will pay for future earnings, so stock market valuation improves automatically as prices fall. That makes the measure strongest exactly when acting on it hurts most. This article covers why the multiple compresses, why stalled intermediate cycles and lower highs matter more than any valuation level, and what has to turn first. In 2022 the forward multiple fell from 21 to 15 on FactSet's measure while the index dropped 25.4 percent.

Small-cap stocks often respond first when rate pressure fades. As borrowing stress eases, capital begins rotating into areas that were left behind during tightening. Improving cycles, broad participation, and low expectations suggest small caps are entering an early rotation phase rather than chasing late strength.

The Buffett Indicator shows stocks are expensive at 216%, well above the 160% reading before the 2000 crash and 110% before 2008. But does this metric work in modern markets with overseas earnings and intangible assets? This article explains why we're still buying dips despite elevated valuations. Learn why the 3 T's - Trend, Timing, and Technicals - provide better trading signals than valuation ratios, how to use the Buffett Indicator as context not a clock, and when actual

The market's obsession with rate cuts reflects the unusual path from zero rates to restrictive policy, creating widespread anticipation for relief. Understanding market rate meaning reveals how interest rates drive economic cycles through credit costs, business investment, and consumer behavior. Learn why rate cuts during steady growth differ from emergency cuts during recessions and how to position for cyclical opportunities.

Discover how market cycles and interest rates shape stock trends and learn how to trade effectively in a shifting Fed policy environment.