What Is a Bullish Trend When Long Term Cycles Hold but Intermediate Goes Flat
- 1 day ago
- 10 min read
What is a bullish trend when long term cycles hold but intermediate goes flat shows how trends remain intact despite temporary sideways behavior as institutions wait for major catalysts. The market continues to sputter higher, but the tone has not changed. We are still in a holding pattern as institutional traders wait for the Fed. The short-term strength we expected has mostly played out, yet conviction remains muted because everyone knows the next catalyst sits on the calendar. Nothing meaningful happens until Powell speaks.
The Forecast charts explain the hesitation. Long-term cycles remain bullish and keep the broader trend intact. Short-term and momentum cycles have been sliding into the meeting window matching the weakness showing up this week. The projection of cycles is the real difference now. After the 10th, the cycle summary begins to roll over with the peak sitting almost directly on the Fed announcement. That timing alone is enough to keep institutions from leaning in ahead of the catalyst.
The intermediate cycle adds another layer of understanding. It is no longer rising, but it is not falling either. It has gone flat, and flat cycles produce sideways behavior. That is exactly what the tape reflects. Donchian channels are rising and prices remain above the 2/3 and 3/5 averages, but each advance is capped by light profit-taking. Institutions are not pressing positions while the intermediate trend stalls and the projected turn sits a day away. The trend remains cautiously bullish for now recognizing bullish trends include periods where intermediate cycles flatten creating hesitation rather than continuous upward momentum.
Understanding Bullish Trends With Long Term Cycle Support
Bullish trends with long-term cycle support maintain directional bias upward even when shorter periods create temporary weakness or sideways action. The long-term cycle represents the dominant rhythm spanning months showing the overall market direction and structural positioning. When long-term cycles remain bullish, they provide the foundation keeping the broader trend intact regardless of what happens in intermediate or short-term periods. This creates environment where pullbacks stay contained and sideways periods represent pauses within larger advances rather than reversals threatening the trend.
Current structure demonstrates this concept perfectly. Long-term cycles remain bullish keeping the broader trend intact despite short-term and momentum cycles sliding into the Fed meeting window. The weakness showing up this week reflects those shorter cycles declining, but the long-term support prevents that weakness from cascading into trend reversal. Donchian channels continue rising and prices hold above key crossover averages like 2/3 and 3/5 showing the structural support remains. The trend is cautiously bullish recognizing the long-term foundation stays intact while shorter periods create temporary hesitation, understanding dynamics detailed in Warren Buffett Cash Position Strategy: Why $340 Billion Signals Market Cycle Discipline.
Why Flat Intermediate Cycles Produce Sideways Behavior Within Trends
Flat intermediate cycles produce sideways behavior within trends because they show the middle-term rhythm neither rising to confirm acceleration nor falling to signal reversal. The intermediate cycle sits between long-term structural positioning and short-term tactical moves. When intermediate cycles rise, they confirm the long-term trend translating into actual price advances creating momentum. When intermediate cycles fall, they warn the trend is weakening potentially threatening reversal. But when intermediate cycles go flat neither rising nor falling, they create indecision where the trend maintains but lacks energy to drive higher.
This flat behavior produces the sideways action we're seeing now. The intermediate cycle has gone flat after previously rising. It's not rising anymore confirming acceleration, but it's not falling either signaling reversal. This creates the holding pattern where the market continues to sputter higher without conviction. Each advance gets capped by light profit-taking. Each dip finds support preventing breakdown. The result is range-bound action slightly biased upward maintaining the bullish trend structure while lacking the momentum to break out decisively. Institutions recognize this pattern and respond by not pressing positions while waiting for the catalyst that resolves the flatness either back to rising or into falling, applying principles detailed in Market Correction vs Crash: How Rotation Keeps Bull Markets Alive.
Reading Institutional Hesitation as Cycles Project Peak on Catalyst
Institutional hesitation appears when cycles project peak directly on major catalyst creating uncertainty about whether announcement resolves favorably or triggers reversal. The projection of cycles shows after December 10th the cycle summary begins to roll over with the peak sitting almost directly on the Fed announcement. That timing alone is enough to keep institutions from leaning in ahead of Powell speaking. When cycles project strength continuing past a catalyst, institutions often position ahead anticipating favorable resolution. But when cycles project the peak coinciding with the announcement, it suggests the catalyst might mark the turn rather than continuation.
This creates the hesitation we're seeing where institutions maintain positions but don't press them. The trend remains cautiously bullish because long-term cycles hold and technical structure shows Donchian channels rising with prices above crossovers. But institutions aren't adding aggressively or driving through resistance. They wait for the Fed to provide clarity about whether the projected peak manifests as actual reversal or just temporary pause before renewed strength. The likely outcome is selling into the announcement rather than buying because even if Powell lowers rates, his statement will probably emphasize caution about future cuts which markets won't welcome, understanding timing patterns detailed in Bullish Continuation Patterns That Align With Intermediate Cycle Timing.
How Technical Structure Confirms Trend Despite Hesitation
Technical structure confirms trend despite hesitation by showing prices holding above key support levels and channels continuing to develop even when conviction lacks. Donchian channels are rising indicating new highs still developing albeit slowly. Prices remain above the 2/3 and 3/5 crossover averages showing buyers maintaining control across multiple periods. These technical elements validate the trend remains intact structurally even though behavioral signals show institutions hesitating rather than pressing aggressively.
The combination creates cautiously bullish environment where the framework maintains upward bias while recognizing limitations. Each advance is capped by light profit-taking preventing breakouts but not reversing the structure. The goal becomes protecting against downside while staying ready for stronger signal if the Fed delivers unexpected dovish tone. Buy stops sit above the market to capture acceleration if favorable surprise occurs. Stops on long positions stay below protecting if the projected peak manifests as actual reversal. This systematic approach manages the reality that bullish trends include periods where intermediate cycles flatten creating sideways behavior and institutional hesitation while long-term support maintains the overall directional bias preventing breakdown into bear market conditions.
People Also Ask About Bullish Trends
What is a bullish trend?
A bullish trend occurs when markets show consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows supported by rising cycle positioning and prices holding above key technical levels. The trend reflects dominant upward bias where pullbacks represent buying opportunities rather than warnings of reversal. Long-term cycles remaining bullish provide the structural foundation keeping the trend intact even when shorter periods create temporary weakness. Technical confirmation comes through Donchian channels lifting and prices staying above crossover averages like 2/3 and 3/5 showing buyers maintaining control.
Bullish trends don't move straight up without interruption. They include periods where intermediate cycles flatten creating sideways behavior and hesitation. They include corrections where short-term cycles decline temporarily. But the long-term cycle support prevents these shorter-term movements from cascading into trend reversal. The overall structure maintains upward bias where the path of least resistance points higher over time. Current market demonstrates this with long-term cycles bullish keeping broader trend intact while intermediate cycle gone flat produces the sideways holding pattern we're experiencing ahead of Fed catalyst.
Can bullish trends go sideways?
Bullish trends can go sideways when intermediate cycles flatten neither rising to confirm acceleration nor falling to signal reversal creating indecision within the larger upward structure. The sideways behavior represents pause rather than reversal where the trend maintains but lacks energy to drive higher immediately. This typically occurs around major catalysts where institutions wait for clarity before committing capital aggressively. The long-term cycle support keeps the trend intact preventing breakdown, but the flat intermediate cycle removes the momentum needed for continuation.
Current market shows this pattern perfectly. The intermediate cycle has gone flat after previously rising. It's not rising anymore to push prices higher aggressively, but it's not falling either to threaten reversal. This creates the holding pattern where market continues to sputter higher without conviction. Each advance gets capped by light profit-taking. Each dip finds support. The result is range-bound action slightly biased upward. The trend remains cautiously bullish because long-term cycles hold and technical structure shows support, but the sideways behavior from flat intermediate cycle persists until the Fed catalyst provides resolution either back to rising or into falling.
How do you identify a bullish trend?
Identifying bullish trends requires combining cycle positioning with technical structure showing consistent upward bias despite temporary pullbacks or sideways periods. Long-term cycles remaining bullish provide the primary signal indicating the dominant rhythm supports upward movement. Donchian channels rising show new highs developing consistently rather than declining or staying flat. Prices holding above crossover averages like 2/3 and 3/5 validate buyers maintaining control across multiple periods creating layered support structure.
The pattern of higher highs and higher lows confirms the trend where each advance pushes above previous peaks and each pullback finds support above previous troughs. Even when intermediate cycles flatten creating sideways behavior, the bullish trend remains identifiable through long-term cycle support and technical structure holding. Current market demonstrates this identification where despite hesitation and sideways action, the trend stays cautiously bullish because long-term cycles remain bullish, Donchian channels continue rising, and prices hold above key crossovers. The flat intermediate cycle creates the pause, but doesn't invalidate the larger bullish structure that would require long-term cycle reversal and breaks below support levels.
What causes bullish trends to hesitate?
Bullish trends hesitate when major catalysts create uncertainty causing institutions to wait for clarity rather than pressing positions despite favorable cycle positioning. The hesitation doesn't reflect bearish outlook but rather prudent risk management ahead of binary events that could resolve either favorably continuing the trend or unfavorably triggering reversal. When cycles project peak coinciding with catalyst announcement, institutions recognize the timing suggests the event might mark turn rather than continuation creating caution about adding exposure aggressively ahead of the decision.
Current hesitation stems from Fed announcement tomorrow where cycles project peak sitting almost directly on Powell's statement. That timing alone is enough to keep institutions from leaning in. Even though long-term cycles remain bullish and technical structure holds with Donchian channels rising and prices above crossovers, institutions maintain positions without pressing them. The intermediate cycle gone flat adds to hesitation by removing the momentum confirmation that would normally drive advances within bullish trends. The combination creates environment where trend remains intact but conviction lacks until catalyst provides resolution clarifying whether projected peak manifests as actual reversal or just temporary pause.
How long do bullish trends last?
Bullish trend duration depends on long-term cycle positioning rather than calendar time-frames where trends persist as long as dominant rhythm remains supportive. Some bullish trends last months spanning multiple intermediate cycles that rise and fall within the larger upward structure. Others extend years when economic conditions and policy environments support sustained cycle strength. The trend doesn't end from specific time passing but from long-term cycles reversing showing the dominant rhythm shifted from supporting upward bias to favoring downward movement.
Current bullish trend maintains because long-term cycles remain bullish keeping the broader structure intact. The intermediate cycle going flat creates temporary sideways behavior but doesn't end the trend. The projected rollover after December 10th suggests potential weakening, but this represents intermediate decline within larger bullish structure rather than necessarily marking long-term trend reversal. The systematic approach monitors cycle positioning continuously rather than predicting specific duration. When long-term cycles begin declining consistently and prices break below key support levels failing to hold crossover averages, those signals indicate trend ending. Until then, the bullish trend persists despite periods of hesitation, flatness, or corrections that represent pauses within the larger upward movement.
Resolution to the Problem
The problem with understanding bullish trends involves expecting continuous upward movement without recognizing trends include periods where intermediate cycles flatten creating sideways behavior and hesitation. Traders either exit at first sign of sideways action missing when trends resume after catalysts resolve, or they ignore flatness signals hoping for immediate continuation getting caught when projected peaks manifest as actual reversals. The exit approach misses opportunities when long-term cycles remain bullish maintaining trend structure. The ignore approach risks capital when cycle projections warn of turns coinciding with major announcements.
The systematic approach reads trend through long-term cycle positioning combined with intermediate behavior and technical structure. Long-term cycles remaining bullish keep broader trend intact even when intermediate cycles flatten temporarily. Technical confirmation through Donchian channels rising and prices holding above crossovers validates structural support. But flat intermediate cycles signal caution where institutions wait rather than press. The trend remains cautiously bullish ahead of Fed decision recognizing long-term support maintains upward bias while projected peak on catalyst creates uncertainty. Protect downside with stops below key levels while maintaining buy stops above market ready to capture acceleration if unexpected dovish tone resolves flatness favorably.
Join Market Turning Point
Most traders struggle with bullish trends because they expect continuous upward momentum without understanding trends include periods where intermediate cycles flatten creating sideways behavior while long-term support maintains structure. The continuous expectation exits positions during normal pauses missing when trends resume. The misunderstanding of flatness ignores warnings when cycles project peaks on catalysts creating vulnerability to reversals that could have been anticipated through systematic cycle analysis.
Understand how bullish trends work at Market Turning Point through long-term and intermediate cycle relationships. You'll learn how long-term cycles remaining bullish keep trends intact despite short-term weakness or sideways periods. You'll see why flat intermediate cycles produce sideways behavior where trends maintain without momentum to drive higher. You'll understand reading institutional hesitation when cycles project peaks on major catalysts creating uncertainty. You'll master confirming trends through technical structure showing Donchian channels rising and prices holding crossovers even when conviction lacks providing systematic framework for managing cautiously bullish environments.
Conclusion
What is a bullish trend when long-term cycles hold but intermediate goes flat demonstrates how trends remain intact despite temporary sideways behavior as institutions wait for major catalysts to resolve uncertainty. Long-term cycles remaining bullish keep the broader trend structure supported preventing breakdown into reversal. But intermediate cycle gone flat neither rising nor falling creates the sideways holding pattern where market continues to sputter higher without conviction as each advance gets capped by light profit-taking.
Technical structure confirms the cautiously bullish bias through Donchian channels rising and prices holding above 2/3 and 3/5 crossover averages. But institutions aren't pressing positions while intermediate trend stalls and projected peak sits directly on Fed announcement tomorrow. The cycle projection rolling over after December 10th suggests weakness ahead likely manifesting as selling into announcement even if Powell lowers rates because his statement will probably emphasize caution about future cuts. The systematic approach protects downside with stops below key levels while maintaining buy stops above market ready to capture acceleration if unexpected dovish tone resolves the flatness favorably, recognizing bullish trends include these periods of hesitation and sideways behavior that represent pauses within larger upward structures rather than immediate reversals.
Author, Steve Swanson