Bull Market Cycle Timing: Why the Current Window Still Offers Big Upside
- Jul 16
- 8 min read
Updated: Jul 16
After a relentless stretch of volatility, inflation shocks, and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, many investors are left asking: is the bull market still alive? Based on long-term cycles and structure, the answer is a clear yes. We're in the middle stages of a classic bull market cycle, with structural resilience pointing to more upside ahead.
History tells us that once a major bear market ends, a multi-year expansion phase usually follows. That’s not just theory - it’s pattern. And right now, the current structure shows the same resilience we’ve seen in other early-cycle rallies. This article explores the timing of the current bull cycle, how to recognize continuation versus reversal, and why we believe the next upside window is closer than most expect.
Bull Market Cycle Timing in Historical Context
Long-term bull cycles have a way of confusing investors - especially in their early stages. After the fear and drawdown of a bear market, the first leg of a new bull can feel fragile. But history shows otherwise. When the S&P 500 climbs back more than 20% off its lows, the clock usually begins on a new extended expansion.
Looking back, the 2009–2020 rally lasted nearly 11 years. Before that, we had multi-year expansions following the 1982 and 1990 lows. Even the post-COVID bull run from 2020 offered nearly two years of consistent gains before inflation forces took over.
We're nearly three years removed from the October 2022 low, where the S&P 500 had dropped more than 25%. Since then, we’ve seen banking disruptions, war headlines, inflation peaks, and multiple Fed rate hikes - and yet the market has climbed through it all. That kind of behavior only happens in early-cycle rallies.
Current Structure Signals Continuation, Not Collapse
While headlines may highlight uncertainty, structure remains firm. The Dow and Russell have paused, but the S&P and Nasdaq have held higher levels - particularly tech and large caps. More importantly, the price channels and crossover averages continue to support upward movement.
Short-term cycles are extended but not exhausted. That’s a critical distinction. Volatility may pick up, and we may see consolidation near term, but we’re not seeing the hallmarks of a long-term top. Instead, this is classic mid-cycle behavior - where the market churns, shakes out weak hands, and sets up the next leg higher.
This kind of pattern isn’t new. It’s been observed in multiple cycles, where brief consolidation windows precede the next expansion wave. Check our post on Short Covering Rally: Understanding the Mechanics and Impact on Market Trends for more info.
Mid-Cycle Consolidation: What It Signals
Consolidation is a natural part of bull cycles - especially in the mid-phase, where early profits are taken and sentiment turns mixed. This is often when weaker indices like the Russell 2000 or the Dow Industrials stall out, while stronger sectors quietly build new bases.
Right now, that’s exactly what we’re seeing. The Nasdaq and S&P are holding structure. The broader market isn’t collapsing - it’s digesting. And that digestion tends to precede another move higher when cycles align again. What matters is recognizing the difference between structural failure and structural rest.
This pattern shows up in both previous long-term cycles and today’s charts. It reinforces that strength beneath the surface is more important than momentary volatility. Check our post on Stock Market Predictions for Tomorrow: Key Insights and Strategies for May 17th, 2024 for more info.
Historical Bull Market Cycles vs. Current Structure
Most investors remember how long bull markets can run—but few know how they start. They often begin quietly, recovering from deep lows with strong participation from leadership sectors. Over time, they expand outward, pulling in mid caps and smaller sectors as confirmation grows.
The October 2022 bottom followed a steep 25% correction, just like prior bear ends. Since then, tech and growth names led strongly, while the broader base caught up more slowly. That's historically consistent. Early leaders often return to drive new waves.
The current rally’s behavior matches these past cycle starts closely. As long as crossover signals remain intact and long-term price channels stay constructive, the broader structure supports more upside. If anything, this pause is what typically happens before the next leg begins.
Reentry Tactics Using Price Channels and Crossover Triggers
Once a short-term cycle nears exhaustion, the reentry setup begins. But the key is not jumping in blindly—it’s using the tools that reflect structure. We don’t rely on noisy indicators. Instead, we watch for a rebound out of the lower reversal zone, confirmed by a turn in crossover averages within a rising price channel.
That’s how we plan to act next week: set buy stops above short-term pivot highs. If cycles turn up, price follows, and crossover confirmation triggers, we’re in. If not, we stay patient. This is where discipline around reentry gives a real edge in trend trading.
This disciplined reentry timing is central to how we trade sustained trends. Check our post on TQQQ Trading Strategy: How to Win Using Stock Market Cycles for more info.
Why Structure Still Supports the Bull Market Cycle
The market's recent moves may look chaotic on the surface, but underneath, the structure still tells a different story - one of strength. We're not basing this on emotion or reacting to news flashes. Instead, we look at how price channels and crossover averages continue to confirm our bullish cycle expectations. The market remains in a rising phase of the long-term cycle, and intermediate-term corrections have so far respected key support areas.
What does this mean in practice? It means we don’t guess - we wait for the structure to tell us when something has changed. As long as price remains within a rising channel and crossover averages hold their trend, the bull market cycle stays intact. Even during short-term pullbacks, this larger pattern holds firm. That’s why we emphasize structure over sentiment - because structure often signals the truth before headlines do.
People Also Ask About Bull Market Cycles
What defines a bull market cycle?
A bull market cycle is typically characterized by a sustained increase in stock prices, often beginning after a significant market low and marked by rising investor confidence, improving economic indicators, and increasing corporate earnings. While the common definition is a 20% rise from recent lows, that alone doesn’t capture the full picture. True bull markets are driven by structure—where leadership sectors consistently outperform, price channels remain intact, and crossover averages confirm upward trends.
More importantly, a bull market is not defined by hype but by behavior. When investors see higher highs and higher lows forming over time, it reflects a deeper shift in momentum. These structural patterns help confirm the rally isn’t just a reaction or a short-term bounce, but a lasting trend supported by fundamentals and sentiment. Recognizing this structure early allows disciplined traders to participate without trying to time tops or guess market reactions to news cycles.
How long do bull market cycles usually last?
Bull market cycles can vary in length, but historically they last between four and six years. Some can stretch even longer under the right macroeconomic and monetary conditions. The post-2009 bull cycle, for instance, extended nearly 11 years, with only brief corrections along the way. What determines the duration isn't just price movement—it's the health of the structure, economic support, and investor participation across different sectors and timeframes.
Currently, we’re just under three years into the rally that began after the October 2022 low. While we’ve seen corrections and consolidation since then, none of the typical signs of a terminal top have emerged. Price channels remain intact, leadership remains consistent in growth and tech sectors, and crossover averages continue to support trend continuation. All of this suggests we are still well within the lifespan of this bull cycle, not near its end.
How can you tell when a bull market is ending?
The end of a bull market doesn’t show up in headlines—it shows up in structure. One of the first warning signs is a series of failed rallies, where the market attempts to break higher but consistently forms lower highs. This signals that buyers are losing conviction. Another key sign is when critical price channels are broken and the crossover averages start turning down decisively—especially on the longer-term charts. These aren’t random technical indicators—they reflect real shifts in participation and capital flow.
It’s also important to distinguish noise from real weakness. One or two volatile weeks due to external news or policy shifts do not end a bull cycle. The market has to consistently fail at higher levels and show persistent distribution—when sellers begin to dominate volume on down days and leadership sectors begin to lag. Until those signs appear, the default stance should remain with the prevailing trend, especially when long-term structure remains intact.
What causes bull markets to pause or consolidate?
Bull markets often pause due to temporary extremes in sentiment, changes in interest rate policy, or unexpected geopolitical or economic developments. These pauses are not inherently bearish—they serve as moments for the market to reset expectations, absorb recent gains, and build a base for the next move higher. Consolidation can take the form of sideways price action, slight pullbacks, or rotational movement between sectors.
In fact, these mid-cycle pauses are often essential to a healthy trend. They clear out weak hands, reduce overbought conditions, and create new entry setups for traders following structure. As long as price channels remain intact and the market avoids sharp structural breakdowns, these consolidations are simply resting phases within the broader bull cycle. Understanding them as part of the rhythm of the market prevents traders from exiting prematurely and missing the next leg higher.
What’s the best strategy during a bull market cycle?
The most effective strategy in a bull market is to align with the trend using a disciplined, structure-based approach. Rather than chasing every rally or trying to predict tops, successful traders use tools like price channels and crossover averages to identify high-probability entry points. These methods help you stay on the right side of the trend while avoiding emotional decisions based on short-term noise.
Pullbacks in a rising channel present opportunities, especially when confirmed by a turn in crossover signals. Placing buy stops just above recent pivot highs allows you to enter when momentum resumes, rather than anticipating a reversal prematurely. The key is to respect the rhythm of the market, stay patient during consolidations, and act only when structure confirms your setup. This way, you're not reacting to fear or greed - you’re following a system that consistently aligns with sustained market moves.
Resolution to the Problem
In times of mixed signals, it’s tempting to abandon structure and trade based on emotion. But successful cycle-based trading demands clarity and patience. When you understand where we are in the bull market cycle, you stop reacting to noise and start acting on confirmation.
The key is consistency: know your tools, trust your structure, and wait for clear triggers. This phase of the market isn’t about gambling - it’s about setting up properly and letting the cycles do their work. For many, that’s the biggest shift: moving from reaction to preparation.
There’s no need to chase. The next window is forming - and with structure intact, it’s coming sooner than the headlines suggest.
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At Market Turning Points, we focus exclusively on cycle-based trend trading using price channels and crossover setups - no distractions, no clutter. We give you the road map, the timing windows, and the tools to act with confidence.
Conclusion
We are still firmly within the rising structure of a long-term bull market cycle. Despite pauses in certain indices and elevated short-term volatility, the broader trends remain intact. History, structure, and cycles all support the idea that more upside lies ahead.
While others worry about daily headlines, we focus on the tools that work: cycles, price channels, and crossover averages. They’ve helped us stay aligned with trend through noisy markets—and they’re pointing to new opportunities forming soon.
Prepare. Don’t predict. The next phase is coming—and if you're ready, this window could be one of the most rewarding of the cycle.
Author, Steve Swanson