Market Turning Points - 2026

Headlines are blips. Cycles are the structure. When intermediate cycles are falling, exposure stays light and cash preserves flexibility. Markets reward discipline and punish impatience. The projected intermediate trough in early March gives us the timing window. Until then, we defend capital first. Once cycles turn up, follow-through strengthens and breakouts hold. Patience is not passive. It is the positioning that makes decisive action possible.

Short-term rallies can feel powerful when they trigger crossovers and produce bullish candles. But when the intermediate cycle does not turn up, the move lacks structural lift. SPX and Dow long-term cycles remain elevated while NDX drifts lower. Until intermediate cycles bottom and align with short-term strength, rallies are swing trades at best. This period of inactivity is preparation for confluence.

Markets are working through a reset, not a bottoming resolution yet. Relief rallies will occur but should not be confused with the durable low still forming. A market bottom requires time reaching the cycle window, momentum turning positive, and structure confirming higher lows. The February 13-17 window is where probability shifts back to buyers. Buy stops remain the right tool. Patience until alignment. Execution when confirmed.

Choppy markets frustrate investors because most people feel like they need to always be in the market. But forced activity is exactly what chop punishes. You don't get paid for being active. You get paid for being right. When trends, timing, and technicals are out of sync, the odds are stacked against you. Patience is not inactivity. It is positioning. Use buy stops as the cyclical turning point approaches.

Markets bounced, tempting traders to jump in. This tactical trading post setup shows why patience wins when short-term cycles turn up but intermediate cycles keep rolling over. Without alignment, rallies stall at resistance. Risk stays elevated until the February 2-12 window completes and cycles realign for higher-probability opportunities.