Breakout trading treats a price event as a signal when it is only a trigger. The clearing motion looks identical before advances that run for months and reversals that give it all back within a week. What separates them is cycle position: whether cycles sit near their projected lows, whether enough selling has happened, and whether crossovers strengthen after the entry. In 2020 the same event produced a 33.9 percent decline in February and a 51.5 percent advance from the Marc
