Crude jumped 8% on weekend war headlines. Dow futures down 1%, Nasdaq off 1.4%. But shock may be too strong a word when naval buildup suggested this was not unforeseen. The June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict showed a similar pattern that did not become structural. The answer depends on whether oil remains elevated for more than a week or two. If flows remain intact, the war premium exits quickly. Patience is our edge near term.
