Market Turning Points - 2026

Short-term and momentum cycles are deep in the lower reversal zone, and the Dow's intermediate cycle is now joining them. When multiple cycles cluster together at these levels, it signals that the selling phase is nearing exhaustion. This next rally will be important. If prices reclaim crossover averages and hold, the probability increases that this stock market recovery can transition into an intermediate advance rather than just another brief bounce.

Divergence patterns when short-term cycles turn up while intermediate rolls over create counter-trend environments requiring tactical positioning. Short-term completed decline into lower reversal zone while intermediate turned down after eight-week advance. PCE at 2.8% reinforces setup. Below 2.8% extends strength into relief rally treated as swing opportunity with next sustained move projecting early-to-mid February. Long-term cycles contain breakdown risk while intermediate