GDP revised down to 0.7% while core PCE remains at 3.1% year over year. Growth has slowed while inflation has stalled. Oil near $100 acts like a tax on the economy. This stagflation backdrop keeps long-term and intermediate cycles declining. Rallies behave as counter-trend rebounds until intermediate cycles bottom and prices confirm above crossover averages. Once those signals appear, probabilities shift back in favor of sustained long trades.
