Market Turning Points - 2026

GDP revised down to 0.7% while core PCE remains at 3.1% year over year. Growth has slowed while inflation has stalled. Oil near $100 acts like a tax on the economy. This stagflation backdrop keeps long-term and intermediate cycles declining. Rallies behave as counter-trend rebounds until intermediate cycles bottom and prices confirm above crossover averages. Once those signals appear, probabilities shift back in favor of sustained long trades.

The stock market rebound from March 6 is consistent with short-term cycles turning higher from oversold. But intermediate cycles remain flat, and prices closed well off their highs. When markets close well off their highs, it often means sellers are still active into strength. Visualizer projections suggest a low may be in place with strength extending into late March. Trade cautiously with smaller positions until confirmation appears.

Short-term rallies can feel powerful when they trigger crossovers and produce bullish candles. But when the intermediate cycle does not turn up, the move lacks structural lift. SPX and Dow long-term cycles remain elevated while NDX drifts lower. Until intermediate cycles bottom and align with short-term strength, rallies are swing trades at best. This period of inactivity is preparation for confluence.