Backwardation appears when traders pay up for protection immediately, and it does not last. Contango is the calm state, and it can hold for months while intermediate cycles decline the entire time. This article covers what each curve state actually indicates, why reading volatility against the crossover averages beats modeling the term structure, and what has to appear alongside calm volatility before a rebound counts as a turn. February 5, 2018 is the record of what calm con
