October 29, 2013 Forecast

October 30, 2013

You may have been noticing that volatility, according to the ATR line, has been falling recently(filtered chart). That's good for the bullish trend, it means that profit taking over the past couple of week has become less frantic, and that the fly wheel of institutional buying has become steady.

 

That's par for the course during an intermediate advance. It's also one of the main reasons new highs can keep climbing higher. When seller's shares are quickly accumulated, buying tends to dry up and indices bounce off of their 5 or 10 DMA, while markets then head higher.

 

Yesterday, the number of new highs shrank a little on the short term weakness, finishing at 176:6 over new lows. The NASDAQ touched its 5 DMA on the day, while the number of stocks falling below their 20 DMA changed little. In other words, an uneventful, mostly sideways session during the course of an intermediate advance.

 

Medium-term filtered cycles are still rising while intermediate and long term cycles remain bullish on both the Dow and NASDAQ. With a bullish trading bias, we'll just keep stops layered under the 5,10,14 and 21 day averages for safety.

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